On Thursday (August 1st), the Asian spot market, the international spot gold is located at 1409.10 US dollars / ounce level. On the previous trading day, the price of gold continued to fluctuate and went up. It rose for the third consecutive trading day with the Yangxian line. It is now temporarily fluctuating from a relatively high level.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
On the previous trading day, international spot gold opened at 1430.60 yuan / ounce, the lowest dropped to 1410.40 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1433.10 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1413.40 US dollars / ounce, down 16.6 US dollars, down 1.16%.
The Fed announced a rate cut of 25 basis points as early as Thursday, but then Chairman Powell hinted that this was not the beginning of the rate cut cycle. The US dollar soared in a short-term, non-US currencies plunged, spot gold once plummeted more than $20, and the US stock market hit a two-month maximum.
Earlier this trading day, the price of gold further accelerated and extended the decline to refresh the low of $1,404.10 per ounce since July 17. It has rebounded slightly from this point.
During the day, US President Trump once again tweeted the Fed and believed that the Fed waited too long to correct the mistakes made.
Trump said in the tweet that experts believe that the Fed should not tighten the policy and wait too long to correct their mistakes...
Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Powell for not doing enough to help his government promote economic growth.
Although the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, it is unlikely to ease the pressure exerted by US President Trump. He is increasingly demanding that the Fed be more aggressive in relaxing monetary policy.
In the next day, the market will usher in “Super Thursday”, the Bank of England (BOE) will announce the monetary policy resolution, and President Carney will attend the press conference. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the European and American series PMI data.
Recently, the US dollar index has been rising steadily. After the Fed’s “hawks” cut interest rates, the US dollar further accelerated and soared for 9 consecutive trading days. The trading day continued to extend its gains to a high of 98.95. On the daily chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column continues to expand, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is moderately flat, indicating that the upward movement of the US dollar can only be paused, but the overall strength remains unchanged, and there is still room for further growth in the future.
On the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index continued to be stable and strong. The MACD red kinetic energy column expanded and the KDJ stochastic indicator moved higher, indicating that the US dollar short-term will continue to strengthen.
The price of gold continued to fluctuate and fluctuated. The green momentum of MACD was expanded and the KDJ stochastic indicator was lower, indicating that the price of gold will expand further.
On the 4 hours chart, gold also continued to fluctuate and fell. The MACD green kinetic energy column continued to expand after the emergence, and the KDJ stochastic indicator further fell, indicating that the short-term gold price will continue to fall under pressure.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. On the early morning of Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate for the first time in ten years, lowering the interest rate ceiling by 2.5 basis points to 2.5% from 2.5%; reducing the discount rate from 3% to 2.75%; and adjusting the excess reserve ratio (IOER) from 2.35%. To 2.10%.
2. According to CCTV news reports on Wednesday, the 12th round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations was held in Shanghai. It discussed that China will increase its procurement of US agricultural products according to domestic needs and the US will create favorable conditions for procurement. The two sides will hold the next round of consultations in the United States in September.
3. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pointed out on Tuesday that the UK will leave the EU on October 31 anyway. Any agreement must remove the guarantee scheme and the UK will never conduct physical inspections or infrastructure construction on the Irish border. There is no agreement to risk the Brexit climb, and the market risk aversion is pervasive.
4. On Tuesday, it was reported that the United States was considering intervening in the US dollar exchange rate, and US President Trump also said on Friday that it did not rule out the possibility of taking action to depreciate the US dollar.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that the interest rate cut is essentially a medium-term adjustment of the policy. There must be insurance factors, but it does not mean that the long interest rate cut cycle begins, and does not rule out another rate hike. Powell's hawkish speech once again caused a lethal effect on gold and silver, and gold dipped again after a brief rebound.
2. The US monthly personal consumption expenditure price index published on Tuesday was 0.1%, lower than the previous value of 0.2% but in line with the expected 0.1%; the US personal income monthly rate in June was 0.4%, which was lower than the previous value of 0.5%. Expected 0.4%; US personal consumption expenditure in June was 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4% but in line with the expected 0.3%.
3. The US Consumer Confidence Index for the July Conference Board announced on Tuesday was 135.7, higher than the previous value of 121.5 and expected 125. It recorded the third highest level since the 2008 economic crisis, and the data boosted the US dollar.
4. The US June NAR seasonally adjusted contracted sales index for the existing homes announced on Tuesday was 2.8%, higher than the previous value of 1.1% and expected 0.5%. These data are generally good, and they are positive for the US dollar, thus neglecting precious metals.