24K99 News On Friday (August 2nd), the Asian spot market, the international spot gold is located in the area of 1432.00 US dollars / ounce. On the previous trading day, the price of gold continued to fluctuate and went up. It rose for the third consecutive trading day with the Yangxian line. It is now temporarily fluctuating from a relatively high level.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
On the previous trading day, international spot gold opened at 1413.41 yuan / ounce, the lowest test was $1400.31 / ounce, the highest rose to 1445.80 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1445.05 US dollars / ounce, up 31.65 US dollars, or 2.24%.
According to Xinhua Finance New York, US President Trump said through social media on the afternoon of August 1 that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on the US$300 billion imported from China from September 1 this year. However, Trump said that he will continue a constructive dialogue with China on a comprehensive trade agreement, and the future of China and the United States will be very bright.
Affected by Trump's tweets, the global market panic broke out overnight, and the VIX index soared 10%, hitting a level of 19.46.
At the same time, according to the latest reports from foreign media on Friday, the Japanese cabinet agreed to move South Korea out of the "white list" plan. The news has further escalated the trade situation between Japan and South Korea. South Korea previously said that if it is removed from the white list, South Korea will have to look at the bilateral security framework.
Subsequently, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Shi Geng Hongcheng, said that Japan’s plan to remove South Korea’s “white list” and move South Korea out of the “white list” will take effect from August 28.
With the spread of market risk aversion, gold has been widely promoted by safe-haven buying. The price of gold in the previous trading day has soared nearly $50 to $1,488.90 per ounce from the low of $1,400 per ounce. Temporarily oscillated from the high level, it has fallen from the high point by more than 18 US dollars to the 1430 US dollars / ounce area.
Analyst Anil Panchal pointed out that before the US non-farm payrolls data release in July, the market's active tension may be a possible reason for the latest profit taking of precious metals.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US Department of Labor will announce the July non-farm payrolls report. The current market expects a non-agricultural increase of 165,000 in July, the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6%, and the average annual salary increase in July is expected to be 3.1%.
According to media surveys, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States is expected to increase by 160,000 in July, an increase of 224,000 last month.
The US July ADP employment demographic data released on Wednesday was less than market expectations, suggesting that the US non-farm payrolls report, which will be released this Friday, is also underperforming, and it also indicates that the US job market is slowing down.
Analysts at Wells Fargo predict that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US is expected to increase by 170,000 in July, slightly higher than market expectations. “Even if there is no further upgrade in trade, we expect that the number of new jobs created in the remainder of 2019 will be less than 200,000, as uncertainty will affect recruitment. We expect the number of new jobs in July to be 170,000.”
The US dollar index hit a 98.95 high and then retraced, and is currently trading in a narrow range. On the daily chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column is narrowed, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is lower, indicating that the US dollar can be suspended after the US dollar rises, and then a period of callbacks will be launched.
On the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index also fell from the high level. The MACD green kinetic energy column expanded slightly, and the KDJ stochastic indicator went lower, indicating that the US dollar short-term will continue to fall.
The daily MACD green kinetic energy column is slightly narrower, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is higher, indicating that the gold price is still strong, and it is expected to expand more upside.
On the 4 hours chart, the price of gold temporarily fluctuated from the high level. The MACD red kinetic energy column continued to expand. The KDJ stochastic indicator was slightly lower, indicating that the gold price will be slightly adjusted in the short-term, but the overall holding strong upside momentum.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. According to Xinhua Finance New York, US President Trump said through social media on the afternoon of August 1 that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on the US$300 billion imported from China from September 1 this year.
2. According to data released on Thursday (August 1st), the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 215,000, higher than the previous value of 2.06 million and expected 2.14 million, still at the low level for many years; In July, the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 51.2, lower than the previous value of 51.7 and expected 52. The monthly rate of US construction expenditure in June fell by 1.3%, lower than the previous value of -0.8% and expected 0.3%. The overall data is weak, which is good for the precious metals.
3. On Friday, according to the latest reports from foreign media, the Japanese cabinet agreed to move South Korea out of the “white list” plan. The news has further escalated the trade situation between Japan and South Korea. South Korea previously said that if it is removed from the white list, South Korea will have to look at the bilateral security framework. Subsequently, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Shi Geng Hongcheng, said that Japan’s plan to remove South Korea’s “white list” and move South Korea out of the “white list” will take effect from August 28.
4. On the morning of Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate for the first time in a decade, lowering the interest rate ceiling by 2.5 basis points to 2.5% from 2.5%; reducing the discount rate from 3% to 2.75%; and adjusting the excess reserve ratio (IOER) from 2.35%. To 2.10%.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that the interest rate cut is essentially a medium-term adjustment of the policy. There must be insurance factors, but it does not mean that the long interest rate cut cycle begins, and does not rule out another rate hike. Powell's hawkish speech once again caused a lethal effect on gold and silver, and gold dipped again after a brief rebound.
2. The US monthly personal consumption expenditure price index published on Tuesday was 0.1%, lower than the previous value of 0.2% but in line with the expected 0.1%; the US personal income monthly rate in June was 0.4%, which was lower than the previous value of 0.5%. Expected 0.4%; US personal consumption expenditure in June was 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4% but in line with the expected 0.3%.
3. The US Consumer Confidence Index for the July Conference Board announced on Tuesday was 135.7, higher than the previous value of 121.5 and expected 125. It recorded the third highest level since the 2008 economic crisis, and the data boosted the US dollar.
4. The US June NAR seasonally adjusted contracted sales index for the existing homes announced on Tuesday was 2.8%, higher than the previous value of 1.1% and expected 0.5%. These data are generally good, and they are positive for the US dollar, thus neglecting precious metals.