24K99 News On Monday (August 5th), the Asian spot market, the international spot gold is located in the area of ​​1454.40 US dollars / ounce. The intraday gold price continued to rise, rising from the intraday low of nearly $20 to the $1,454/oz area, stabilizing above the $1,450 mark.
At present, the price of gold has exceeded the high of 1452.78 US dollars / ounce before 2 weeks, and the new high since the May 10, 2013 is 1455.95 US dollars / ounce.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
During the day, the opening of the RMB suddenly fell sharply, and both the onshore and offshore RMB broke. This has further aggravated market risk aversion, and gold buying has swarmed.
The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar announced at 09:15 on Monday was 229 points lower than the previous day to 6.9225. The median price depreciated to the lowest since December 3, 2018, the largest since May 15, 2019.
Subsequently, the offshore RMB fell below the 7-integer mark against the US dollar, and the decline once reached 1.7%, falling more than 1200 points, and the lowest hit 7.1078 level.
After the 9:30 split, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar also fell below the psychological barrier of “7”.
On the previous trading day, the international spot gold opened at 1454.11 yuan / ounce, the lowest test was 1429.83 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1448.50 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1440.30 US dollars / ounce, down 4.75 US dollars, a decrease of 0.33%.
Due to the slowdown in non-agricultural employment growth in the US announced on Friday, and the global trade situation is tight, there has not been any new progress in Sino-US trade. The market is worried about the Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut again in September. Frustration. On the trading day, as the market risk aversion continued to ferment, the US dollar index extended further and fell below the 98 mark to 97.87. Affected by the weaker dollar, gold bulls started to attack, and the intraday low of $1,365.70 per ounce rose sharply by nearly $20 to $1,455.95 per ounce.
The US Department of Labor said on Friday that the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 164,000 in July, lower than the previous month, and the salary increased slightly.
Analysts said that as the Fed’s expectations for a rate cut in September heat up, the downward pressure on the US dollar has intensified, and gold prices are expected to break out again this week.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco.com, said: "The escalation of tensions between the US and China will have other effects, including a sharp increase in the possibility that the Fed will lower interest rates again in the coming months. This is also beneficial to the precious metals market."
Analysts have begun to point out that gold prices may exceed $1,500 per ounce, and trade tensions are one of the main factors driving the rise in gold prices.
Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said: "We have seen consolidation and consolidating below $1,450. In the downside, we tested $1,400 but were resolutely rejected. In my opinion, all of this The logic shows that we are at a critical moment to break the $1,500 mark."
Nedoss added that the most likely trend for gold prices is rising. He said: "Technically, gold looks good. We are testing a high above $1,460 and will not have much resistance before $1,500."
Technical analysis:
The US dollar index continued to fall steadily, hitting a low of 97.87. On the daily chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column continued to shrink sharply, and the KDJ stochastic indicator further fell, indicating that the dollar's downside momentum is strong, and it is expected to expand further downside.
On the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index also maintained a downward pressure. The MACD green kinetic energy column expanded slightly, and the KDJ stochastic index was moderately under pressure, indicating that the US dollar short-term will continue to fall.
The daily MACD green kinetic energy column is slightly narrower, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is higher, indicating that the gold price has strong momentum and it is expected to expand more upside.
On the 4 hours chart, the price of gold continued to fluctuate, the MACD red kinetic energy column expanded, and the KDJ stochastic indicator slightly went up, indicating that the short-term gold price will continue to rise.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday (August 2) showed that the non-agricultural employment population increased by 164,000 in July, down from the previous month's increase of 224,000, and the salary in July only increased slightly. The US Department of Labor said that in the past three months, the average number of non-agricultural employment in the United States was 140,000.
2. The U.S. June trade account announced on Friday was a deficit of $55.2 billion, better than the previous value of $55.5 billion but lower than expected - $54.6 billion. The US University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July was 98.4, which was consistent with the previous value but lower than the expected 98.5.
3. According to Xinhua Finance New York, US President Trump said through social media on the afternoon of August 1 that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on the US$300 billion imported from China from September 1 this year.
4. According to data released last Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 215,000, higher than the previous value of 2.06 million and expected 2.14 million. It is still at a low level for many years; the US ISM manufacturing in July The Purchasing Managers Index was 51.2, lower than the previous value of 51.7 and the expected 52; the US June construction spending rate fell by 1.3%, lower than the previous value of -0.8% and expected 0.3%. The overall data is weak, which is good for the precious metals.
5. On Friday, according to foreign media reports, Japan confirmed that South Korea will be removed from the “white list”, which will take effect from August 28. The South Korean side immediately announced that it would remove the "white list" of exports from Japan.
6. Last week, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate for the first time in ten years, lowering the interest rate ceiling by 25.5% from the 2.5% to 2.25%; reducing the discount rate from 3% to 2.75%; and adjusting the excess reserve ratio (IOER) from 2.35% to 2.10%.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that the interest rate cut is essentially a medium-term adjustment of the policy. There must be insurance factors, but it does not mean that the long interest rate cut cycle begins, and does not rule out another rate hike. Powell's hawkish speech once again caused a lethal effect on gold and silver, and gold dipped again after a brief rebound.
2. The US monthly personal consumption expenditure price index published on Tuesday was 0.1%, lower than the previous value of 0.2% but in line with the expected 0.1%; the US personal income monthly rate in June was 0.4%, which was lower than the previous value of 0.5%. Expected 0.4%; US personal consumption expenditure in June was 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4% but in line with the expected 0.3%.
3. The US Consumer Confidence Index for the July Conference Board announced on Tuesday was 135.7, higher than the previous value of 121.5 and expected 125. It recorded the third highest level since the 2008 economic crisis, and the data boosted the US dollar.
4. The US June NAR seasonally adjusted contracted sales index for the existing homes announced on Tuesday was 2.8%, higher than the previous value of 1.1% and expected 0.5%. These data are generally good, and they are positive for the US dollar, thus neglecting precious metals.