24K99 News On Friday (August 9th), the Asian spot market, the international spot gold is located at the level of 1503.70 US dollars / ounce. Earlier this week, the price of gold once surged to a high of $1510.27 per ounce. After that, it failed to further expand its gains, but remained at a high level. It continued to trade in a narrow range near the high level and held the $1,500/oz mark.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
On the previous trading day, international spot gold opened at 1501.05 yuan / ounce, the lowest test was 1489.79 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1509.40 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1500.80 US dollars / ounce, down 0.56 US dollars, a decrease of 0.03%.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States released last Thursday was 209,000, better than the previous value and expected 215,000, which boosted the dollar.
At the same time, the final monthly wholesale inventory rate in the United States in June was 0, lower than the previous value and expected 0.2%; the US monthly wholesale sales rate in June fell 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.1% and expected 0.2%. The data is bad for the US dollar, but the overall impact on the market is small.
According to the analysis, the retracement of gold on Thursday was a normal adjustment. Some short-term traders took profits. It is extremely normal for gold prices to be repaired and consolidated after hitting a six-year high of $1510.27 per ounce on Wednesday.
Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, said, “Despite the slight rebound in the stock market, gold prices have remained above $1,500. Bond trading prices have exceeded $15 trillion and yields are negative, but there seems to be no better alternative to gold. At this point, it is normal to see some adjustments. But if the dollar is weak, then gold will usher in another sharp rebound. And if the Trump administration considers intervening in the dollar exchange rate, there will be another sharp rise in gold."
Anton Kolhanov, chief technology strategist of Forex-trend, a foreign broker, pointed out that from a technical point of view, the price of gold is still above the $1,500/oz mark, which is in a clear upward trend. The gold bulls have a technical advantage in the near future.
Kolhanov said that as long as the price of gold remains above the support level of $1,491 per ounce, the uptrend will continue to extend and the market outlook is expected to hit the resistance level of $1510 per ounce. If the price continues to rise and breaks through $1510 per ounce, it will rise further to hit $1522 per ounce.
Technical analysis:
The US dollar index temporarily fell into a fairly narrow range of trading. On the daily chart, the MACD green kinetic energy column expanded and the KDJ stochastic indicator continued to fall, indicating that the dollar's downside momentum is still strong, and it is expected to fall back quickly.
On the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index is temporarily trading near the low level. The MACD red kinetic energy column is steady, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is slightly downward, indicating that the US dollar short-term downtrend is suspended, or continues to narrowly.
Gold continued to hold steady, the daily MACD red kinetic energy column slightly expanded, KDJ stochastic indicator slightly downward, indicating that the gold price kinetic energy still exists, but the current rally is suspended.
On the 4 hours chart, the price of gold was narrowly arranged near the high level, the MACD green kinetic energy column appeared, and the KDJ stochastic indicator was slightly upward, indicating that the gold price was short-term correction.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The final monthly wholesale inventories in June released on Thursday (August 8th) was 0, lower than the previous value and expected 0.2%; the monthly wholesale sales rate in the United States decreased by 0.3% in June, lower than the previous value of 0.1. % and expected 0.2%, which is a negative for the US dollar.
2. US President Trump publicly supported the weakening of the US dollar. He said in a series of tweets on Thursday that he did not like the US dollar to remain strong because of the Fed policy. He believed that the Fed went wrong every step of the way. Trump wrote: "As your president, some people think that I will be excited about our very strong dollar. I don't! The United States has the world's greatest company, but the Fed is not the greatest central bank, the Fed every step It’s all gone wrong.”
3. In response to the US Treasury's listing of China as a “currency manipulator”, the People's Bank of China issued a statement on Tuesday (August 6) saying that China deeply regrets this. This label does not meet the quantitative standards of the so-called "currency manipulators" formulated by the US Treasury. It is a wayward unilateralism and protectionist behavior that seriously undermines international rules and will have a major impact on global economic finance.
4. According to a press release issued by the Ministry of Commerce's website in Beijing on Tuesday morning, Chinese companies suspended new US agricultural product purchases. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said in a speech on the suspension of new US agricultural products purchases by Chinese companies. It is understood that the US has announced that it intends to impose a 10% tariff on US$300 billion in Chinese exports to the United States. This is a serious violation of the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States. It is agreed that the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council will not rule out import tariffs on newly purchased US agricultural products after August 3, and Chinese related companies have suspended purchasing US agricultural products.
5. After the US stock market closed on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Nunuchin issued a statement saying that China was recognized as a currency manipulator. On the afternoon of the 5th local time, the US Treasury officially listed China as a currency manipulator. The US Treasury Department said in an e-mail that Finance Minister Nuchin will engage with the IMF to eliminate unfair competition brought about by China's actions.
6. According to Xinhua Finance New York, US President Trump said through social media on the afternoon of August 1 that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on the US$300 billion imported from China from September 1 this year.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. The data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 209,000, better than the previous value and expected 215, which boosted the US dollar.
2. It is reported that on August 5th, local time, four former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen jointly published an article in The Wall Street Journal. "The United States needs an independent Fed" and calls for the Fed to remain independent.
3. The final value of the US Markit Service Purchasing Managers Index for July was 53 on Monday, higher than the previous value and expectations of 52.2. Markit Chief Commercial Economist Williamson said that although the service industry PMI data indicates that the overall US business growth rate improved in July. However, the weak pace of expansion is still a concern.
4. On Monday, Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that since August, many currencies have depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate has also been affected to a certain extent. This fluctuation is market driven and decided. Whether it is from the fundamentals of the Chinese economy or from the balance of market supply and demand, the current RMB exchange rate is at an appropriate level.
5. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that the interest rate cut is essentially a medium-term adjustment of the policy. There must be insurance factors, but it does not mean that the long interest rate cut cycle begins, and does not rule out another rate hike. Powell's hawkish speech once again caused a lethal effect on gold and silver, and gold dipped again after a brief rebound.