24K99 News On Monday (August 12th), the Asian spot market, the international spot gold is located at the level of 1497.00 US dollars / ounce. Earlier this week, the price of gold once surged to a high of more than 6 years at a high of $1510.27 per ounce. However, it failed to further expand the gains. It basically narrowed the trading range near the high level and continues to maintain this position below the $1,500/oz mark. situation.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
On the previous trading day, international spot gold opened at 1500.80 yuan / ounce, the lowest test was 1494.22 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1509.40 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1497.10 US dollars / ounce, down 3.70 US dollars, a decrease of 0.25%.
Although economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to dominate the market, some analysts believe that gold prices may be close to the near-term top and need to be consolidating. However, as analysts dare not rush to short short gold, bullish sentiment is still evident.
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said that trade problems have caused market risk aversion to heat up, affecting gold performance last week. The market has taken into account the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Fed, which is good for gold.
Goldman Sachs believes that the $1,500/oz level is only the beginning for gold, and gold prices are expected to rise to the $1600/oz mark in the next six months.
UBS Group AG and Citigroup are also bullish on gold, arguing that gold prices can rise to $1,600 per ounce.
Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals News, said he is bullish on gold because of seasonal factors, but he also warned investors should be prepared for corrections.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS (Switzerland) SA, said that seeing the gold fall will be healthy, but added that the momentum continues to support price increases in the near term. He reiterated his appeal that any correction retracement can be considered a buying opportunity due to the market's motivation.
Technical analysis:
The US dollar index continued to fall into a fairly narrow range of trading. On the daily chart, the MACD green kinetic energy column expanded and the KDJ stochastic indicator continued to fall, indicating that the dollar's downside momentum is still strong, and it is expected to resume its decline soon.
On the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index also continued to trade in a narrow range near the low level. The MACD red kinetic energy column was slightly narrowed, and the KDJ stochastic indicator was slightly downward, indicating that the US dollar short-term may also quickly expand.
After refreshing the high of $1510.27 per ounce for more than six years (since April 2013) last week, gold has basically traded in a narrow range around the high level and is still maintaining this trend. The daily MACD red kinetic energy column is stable, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is slightly downward, indicating that the gold price kinetic energy still exists, but the current rally is suspended.
On the 4 hours chart, the price of gold continued to be narrowly arranged near the high level. The MACD green kinetic energy column was slightly enlarged, and the KDJ stochastic indicator was moderately lower, indicating that the gold price was short-term or a small correction.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The US producer price index (PPI) released last Friday (August 9) increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.7% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. The rebound in energy product costs is good for PPI performance, while the fall in potential producer inflation suggests that the Fed will start a second rate cut in September.
2. On Friday, US President Trump slammed the Fed, saying that the United States has the safest currency in the world, but the dollar is too strong to damage the interests of manufacturers, and the Fed needs to lower interest rates. I hope that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 100 basis points, and the Fed should stop quantifying the tightening.
3. The final monthly wholesale inventory rate for June in the United States released on Thursday was 0, lower than the previous value and expected 0.2%; the monthly wholesale sales rate in the United States decreased by 0.3% in June, lower than the previous value of 0.1% and expected to be 0.2%. Forming a negative for the dollar.
4. In response to the US Treasury's listing of China as a “currency manipulator”, the People's Bank of China issued a statement on Tuesday (August 6) saying that China deeply regrets this. This label does not meet the quantitative standards of the so-called "currency manipulators" formulated by the US Treasury. It is a wayward unilateralism and protectionist behavior that seriously undermines international rules and will have a major impact on global economic finance.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 209,000, better than the previous value and expected 215, which boosted the formation of the US dollar.
2. It is reported that on August 5th, local time, four former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen jointly published an article in The Wall Street Journal. "The United States needs an independent Fed" and calls for the Fed to remain independent.
3. The final value of the US Markit Service Purchasing Managers Index in July was 53, higher than the previous value and expected 52.2. Markit's chief business economist Williamson said that although the service industry PMI data showed that the overall US business growth rate improved in July, but expanded Weak pace is still a concern.
4. Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that since August, many currencies have depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate has also been affected to a certain extent. This fluctuation is market driven and decided. Whether it is from the fundamentals of the Chinese economy or from the balance of market supply and demand, the current RMB exchange rate is at an appropriate level.