24K99 News The global economic slowdown has not yet dispersed. The US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves showed the first recession since 2007, and the US bond market continued to show signs of recession on Thursday. US 30-year bond yields fell to a record low below 2%, 10-year bond yields fell to a three-year low, and US 2-year bond yields fell to near-two-year lows.
At the same time, the news of Trump's latest remarks and the situation in North Korea further stimulated risk aversion. Gold once jumped earlier, hitting a maximum of $1527.86 per ounce, and has now fallen back.
As the uncertainty of the global trade situation continues to heat up, the instability of the international geopolitical situation has intensified, and concerns about the slowdown in economic growth in major countries have continued to spread. Central banks, headed by the Federal Reserve, have started to cut interest rates. However, this does not seem to be enough to alleviate investor concerns and anxiety, and the market is still shrouded in the shadow of panic.
Affected by this, the previous day, gold continued to hold steady and volatility, and closed for the second consecutive day with the Yangxian line, and continues to maintain its upward trend.
On Friday (August 16th), the Asian spot market, the international spot gold is located at the level of 1519.50 US dollars / ounce. On the previous trading day, the price of gold continued to hold steady and volatility, as the market risk aversion remained strong and investors continued to favor safe-haven assets.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
On the previous trading day, the international spot gold opened at 1516.10 yuan / ounce, the lowest test was 1507.90 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1526.80 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1522.80 US dollars / ounce, up 6.72 US dollars, or 0.44%.
Under the risk, market participants are increasingly cautiously betting, and increasingly prefer safe-haven assets, the future prospects of gold can be expected.
Economies.com, a well-known financial information website, recently pointed out that on the technical side, the price of gold has turned into a wide-ranging consolidation above the $1,500/oz mark, but it is still in a clear upward trend. The gold bulls have a technical advantage in the near future. The bullish bullish expectations continue to depend on the gold price staying above $1,148.60 per ounce, and the current target for the gold price is still seen at $1560.00 per ounce. This means that the price of gold has a large upside of nearly $40 from the current water level.
UBS strategist Joni Teves predicts that the average price of gold next year should be $1,550 per ounce, which is $100 higher than the previous estimate of $1,450. However, the price of gold has a greater potential for growth and is expected to reach $1,680. In other words, the price of gold may be close to $1,700, a level that has never been seen for years.
An analyst from a foreign institution, Dent Research, pointed out that as long as the Sino-US trade situation has not been completely eased, as long as the central banks of the world are trying to separate the savers from the cash, I think the price of gold will rise. It may not exceed the high of $1,900 in 2011, but it is still above $1,500/oz.
Technical analysis:
The US dollar index also continued to hold steady against the day, and has closed up for three consecutive trading days, hitting a high of 98.26. On the daily chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column is looming, and the KDJ stochastic indicator has risen sharply, indicating that the dollar's rising momentum is still strong, or it will soon start a stronger trend.
On the 4 hours chart, the US dollar index maintained a volatile upward trend. The MACD red kinetic energy column was steady, and the KDJ stochastic index was moderately higher, indicating that the US dollar short-term will continue to rise.
The price of gold continued to hold steady and volatility. The daily MACD red kinetic energy column was steady, and the KDJ stochastic indicator was flat, indicating that the gold price revival momentum still exists, or continues to move upward.
On the 4 hours chart, the price of gold also maintained a volatile upward trend. The MACD red kinetic energy column was slightly narrowed, and the KDJ stochastic indicator turned slightly lower, indicating that the short-term correction of the gold price may start a small correction. This technical signal needs to be taken seriously, and the gold short-term bulls need to be wary of the gold price correction.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. On Friday (August 16th), US President Trump’s latest speech re-aligned with the EU’s trade relations, which further exacerbated global trade tensions. Trump said that the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement will be a "disaster". The EU treats the United States even worse than China, and imposes "great" tariffs on countries that violate the rules.
2. According to CCTV news reports on Friday, according to the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters, on the morning of August 16, local time, North Korea launched two UFOs in the eastern part of the peninsula in the Tongchuan area of ​​Gangwon-do. The South Korean military is paying close attention to it. The direction of the DPRK.
3. New news broke out in Sino-US trade on Thursday, and the two sides have yet to make a crucial breakthrough in negotiations. Earlier in the day, the US Trade Representative Office announced that it would impose a 10% tariff on imports of about 300 billion U.S. dollars. The relevant person in charge of the State Council’s Customs Tariff Commission said that the US’s move was a serious violation of the consensus between the heads of state of Argentina and China. The Osaka meeting consensus has deviated from the correct track of consultations to resolve differences. China will have to take the necessary countermeasures.
4. On Thursday, US 30-year bond yields fell to a record low below 2% on Thursday, 10-year bond yields fell to a three-year low, and US two-year bond yields fell to near two-year lows.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. The US retail sales data released on Thursday unexpectedly improved, which temporarily eased financial market concerns about the US economy's recession. The data shows that the monthly retail sales rate in the United States increased by 0.7% in July, and the previous value was revised to increase by 0.3%, which is expected to increase by 0.3%.
2. On the 10th of August, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the US on August 10 was recorded at 220,000, rising to a 6-week high, which was better than the expected 21.4 million. Some commentators pointed out that the number of US initial jobless claims increased more than expected last week, but the overall trend still indicates that the labor market is strong. There is no indication that the impact of the current trade situation has spilled over into the labour market.
3. The data released by the US Department of Labor on Tuesday showed that the US CPI monthly rate increased by 0.3% in July, and is expected to increase by 0.3%; the July CPI annual rate increased by 1.8, and is expected to increase by 1.7%; the core CPI annual rate increased by 2.2, and is expected to increase by 2.1%. Some institutions said that the US CPI growth rate was strong in July due to higher energy and other prices of most goods and services.
4. The US Trade Representative Office said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will postpone the start of next month to impose a 10% tariff on certain Chinese products, including laptops and mobile phones. US President Trump also said that he will postpone tariffs on some Chinese goods before Christmas.