FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News August 2, 22:30 to August 3, 05:00, the market summary: the dollar fell across the board on Friday, as the data showed that US employment growth slowed in July, and Sino-US trade tensions intensified, It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates again in September. However, according to CME “Federal Watch”, after the release of non-agricultural data in July, the probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates of 2.00%-2.25% in September will rise from 4.2% to 15.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points will be lowered from 95.8% to 84.2%; The probability of maintaining interest rates of 2.00%-2.25% in October was raised from 1.7% to 4.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points in October was 42.3% and 53.2%, respectively.
According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States reached 164,000 in July, which is basically the same as the expected value of 165,000. The unemployment rate in July recorded 3.7%, in line with expectations. However, the US Department of Labor revised the non-agricultural data for two months: the number of employment growth in May was revised down from 72,000 to 62,000, and the number of employment growth in June was revised from 224,000 to 193,000. The revised data shows that the total employment growth in the United States in May plus June was 41,000 lower than previously estimated. The average growth of non-agricultural employment in the past three months was 140,000.
Some commentators pointed out that due to the increasing proportion of the US employment population, the recruitment pace of the US labor market has slowed down this year. In the past three months, the average number of new non-agricultural employment was 140,000, far lower than the 23.7 in the same period last year. Ten thousand people. However, it is believed that US employers maintained a steady pace of recruitment in July, which is a signal to appease the market for a series of ups and downs in the US economy.
The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates on Wednesday, the first time since 2008. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell described the market-recommended 25 basis point rate cuts as a preventive measure to prevent downside risks from the ten-year economic expansion of the United States, such as preventing trade tensions and slowing global economic growth. After the interest rate cut, the US dollar followed the US Treasury bond price, but the recorded gains were basically fully repaid on Friday.
Analysis of major currency trends:
EUR/USD: The session opened at 1.1100 during the session and oscillated at a low level, eventually closing at around 1.1107, down 0.16% this week. From a technical point of view, the MACD green kinetic energy column contracted slightly, and the KDJ indicator continued to rise at a low level, indicating that the downside risk of the exchange rate was slightly reduced. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 1.1111, the further resistance is at 1.1138, the key resistance is at 1.1180, the initial support for the downside is at 1.1043, the further support is at 1.1000, and the more critical support is at 1.0974.
GBP/USD: The session opened at 1.2128, moderately rebounded during the session, and finally closed near 1.2156, which fell 1.82% this week. From a technical point of view, the MACD green kinetic energy column shrinks slightly, and the KDJ indicator has a low gold cross, indicating that the recent downward trend of the exchange rate has been blocked. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 1.2174, the further resistance is at 1.2219, the more critical resistance is at 1.2266; the initial support for the downside is at 1.2081, the further support is at 1.2034, and the more critical support is at 1.1989.
USD/JPY: The session opened at 106.65 during the session and consolidated in the session. It eventually closed around 106.58 and fell 1.91% this week. From a technical point of view, the MACD green kinetic energy column has expanded significantly, and the KDJ indicator has entered the oversold area downwards, indicating that the short-term exchange rate may continue to decline. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 108.68, the further resistance is at 110.03, the more critical resistance is at 110.74; the initial support for the downside is at 106.62, the further support is at 105.91, and the more critical support is at 104.56.