FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News August 12, 22:30 to August 13, 06:30 exchange market summary: the dollar as a whole stable, the pound and the euro rose modestly, the current foreign exchange market in August traditional quiet trading period Many investors and traders are on vacation. Some agencies have pointed out that the US dollar index has already sounded a sharp drop in the alarm. Since the third quarter of last year, the US dollar index weekly MACD has seen a top three divergence phenomenon, which may indicate that the US dollar will usher in the mid-term peak market. In addition, the Argentine presidential primaries exposed an accident, the country's market suffered three stocks of debt.
Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they no longer expect China and the United States to reach a trade agreement before the 2020 US presidential election. They lowered their expectations for US economic growth in the fourth quarter and said that the possibility of a prolonged trade war that has caused the economy to slip into recession is rising. This week, the market will focus on China's July retail sales and industrial value added data scheduled for release on Wednesday to assess the impact of trade wars on domestic economic activity.
Recently, the inversion of US bond yields has caused the market to worry that the US economy will fall into recession, and the latest comments of the former US Treasury Secretary make investors feel more worried. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said on Sunday that the US and the global economy are at the most dangerous moments since the global financial crisis a decade ago, as trade tensions continue to intensify. According to the Wall Street Journal, Fed officials are considering using countercyclical capital buffers to reduce the risk of a credit crunch during the economic downturn. In addition, investors will also be watching the Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo. later this month, looking for clearer future interest rate path clues. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates two to three times before the end of this year.
Analysis of major currency trends:
EUR/USD: The session opened at 1.1212 during the session, which was consolidating during the session and trading at around 1.1212. From a technical point of view, the MACD red kinetic energy column is steadily stretched, and the KDJ indicator continues to rise at a high level, indicating that the short-term action of the exchange rate can still be released. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 1.1242, the further resistance is at 1.1271, the key resistance is at 1.13111, the initial support for the downside is at 1.1173, the further support is at 1.1133, and the more critical support is at 1.1104.
GBP/USD: The session opened at 1.2079 during the session and was consolidated sideways during the session, trading towards 1.2076 at the end of the trading session. From a technical point of view, the MACD green kinetic energy column continues to shrink, and the KDJ indicator is low in the gold fork, indicating that the downward pressure on the exchange rate has been reduced. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 1.2116, the further resistance is at 1.2157, the more critical resistance is at 1.2208; the initial support for the downside is at 1.2025, the further support is at 1.1974, and the more critical support is at 1.1933.
USD/JPY: The session opened at 105.34, which fell moderately during the session and traded near 105.25 in late trading. From a technical point of view, the MACD green kinetic energy column is basically flat, and the KDJ indicator continues to decline at a low level, suggesting that the recent downward trend of the exchange rate has not changed. The initial resistance of the exchange rate is at 105.64, the further resistance is at 105.99, the more critical resistance is at 106.29; the initial support for the downside is at 105.00, the further support is at 104.70, and the more critical support is at 104.35.